German tragedy in the making

As has been widely reported, Martin Schulz is stepping down from the presidency of the European Parliament and returning to Berlin. While it is far from clear what he will actually do back in German politics, his return has already been labelled a shake-up of the Social Democratic Party. It is no coincidence. Schulz is known to be an ambitious man, and what else can his mind be on than to be his party’s candidate for next year’s election?

There should not be any doubt. This coming federal election in September will be an epic event. Entering the race everybody seems to think Germany is still safe from reactionist populists, such as the likes of Marine LePen and Geert Wilders. There may be a far rightist group on the ascent, being called the AfD, and they may well be represented in the Bundestag in the future, but their faction will under no circumstances win any kind of majority.

However, the status quo is not as unshakable as it seems. The stars aren’t exactly aligned. The last rock in the global waves, or should we say tsunami, has been perceived to be Angela Merkel. Her positioning as being the remaining credible leader in the world to be steadfast on liberal and humanistic values is ambiguous at best. Showing Trump the cold shoulder and picking up on Obama’s lingo can easily turn out to be a double-edged sword.

Nor will it paper over the apparent cracks she’s caused with her misguided immigration policies, one the electorate will make her pay for come September. An honourable retreat from her party’s top position and a handover to the next generation could have been a possibility, maybe even a god-sent. But hold on… Didn’t she make sure there wasn’t any potential successor that could hit the ground running, due to her paranoia to be deposed prematurely?

Well, it apparently left her with no other choice but to stand again, perfectly knowing she would be running an asymmetrical risk and probably cost her party dearly. Both her near-absolute authority within the CDU and the lack of the obvious successor leave the party with no choice either. Her famous battle cry on immigration matters, “Wir schaffen das!, as in we can do it, seems to also serve as the sole leitmotif going into this campaign.

That is not to say that she will not come out on top, but this time around it will depend on who she can form a ruling coalition with again. Relying on the SPD is gullible and like being the option short. Martin Schulz or not, the SPD as an establishment party also runs the risk of having to count losses. And if it is Schulz who runs as leading candidate, he will not owe Merkel anything, or at least much less than the current vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel.

Which constructs a dilemma only a very few are currently considering. What if the CDU and the SPD both decline, and the populist and non-establishment parties gain or remain at par? Who is Merkel going to choose as a coalition partner? Assume for a minute the SPD under this potentially new and more aggressive leadership spurns her efforts and listens to the ranks of the ever louder change-advocates after her rule of 12 years?

Further assume that she will never go down the road of teaming up with either the AfD or the Left Party, simply for ideological reasons. That leaves the Green Party, but neither are the Greens of the same fabric these days that made them qualify to partner up with one Gerhard Schroeder and rule with him from 1998 through 2005, nor are they on their own likely to present her with a credible majority.

Leaves the very likelihood of Germany, and the very remnant of a Europe we still have for that matter, being faced with a potential outcome and government that could end up being as bad as populists taking over in other countries. Imagine a Martin Schulz were to decide to bring about that change and formed what Germans call a Red-Red-Green coalition, getting the Left and Green Parties into his tent… Imagine.

If it was hard to predict the consequences, one would fairly have to consider the benefit of the doubt. But it isn’t. This would be a tectonic political shift like we haven’t seen since the War. A majority of issues Germany stands for today and Germans, Europeans and the rest of the world have become accustomed of taking for granted would be called into question. Its leadership role in Europe would be dissipating, its economic might on a fast descent.

We know Donald Trump a little better after the election. Someone on Twitter described it as his supporters take him seriously but don’t take him literally. The liberal media etc take him literally but dont take him seriously. I wish you could ascribe the Trump sort of flexible thinking to the much more principled left-wingers within the SPD and the near-radical elements within Left and Green Parties. But I am afraid you cannot.

If the leadership of the Left Party, commonly described as transporting a far-left ideology, vows to take Germany out of NATO, it isn’t the same as Trump asking for more money from its members. They mean it. If their economic policies are designed to take the country back to the stone age, no wonder the productive minds are scared. If the party is being observed by the Federal Office for protection of the constitution, there must be a reason.

In other words, the drive into the reactionist populist direction seems to be clear-cut for everybody except Germany. However, while it is lucky that the country until recently was the eminent exception to the rule and never developed a rightist movement, it is there now and will do its part to weaken the political center. It looks like the prime victim will be the CDU, and that is what will back-fire and turn things upside down.

Instead of having to worry about a new nationalistic and homophobic right Germany seems destined for a battle with its ultra-left. It probably just doesn’t know it yet. But when the dilemma unfolds, fingers will be pointed, and they are likely to be pointed at Angela Merkel. While it is understandable against the background of the country’s poor demographic, she bet on the wrong horse with her immigration policy. That is and will be on her, and her alone.

It is the stuff tragedies are made of. Politicians like Merkel are without a doubt having the right intentions, but they end up doing horrible things. Germany as a nation is already pretty far down the path of dissolution. For historical reasons any aspirations for a renewal of the German nation have been squashed after the War, and Germany was ultimately meant to go up in the larger EU construct. Only some teutonic values were to remind of the former self.

But crises have built on crises ever since. One of existential proportions would hit Berlin if the construct as such were in danger now. An EU break-up would leave Germany in a vacuum of identity, with nothing. There was only a way forward, but not any one back. And her almost Faustian bargain with regards to importing millions of refugees has caused another crisis. “Wir schaffen das!” will not be enough to pull her and the CDU out of that hole.

These days Merkel is probably reading up on Goethe at night, finding solace in Faust’s absolution and recalling the angels who in the end declare: “He who strives on and lives to strive… can earn redemption still”. Not all is lost yet. She might still be hoping to go to heaven, and Martin Schulz may only replace Frank Steinmeier as foreign minister, when he ascends to the representative office of president.

But it appears the SPD is readying their guns and not being shy about contemplating different political scenarios post the election, to make change happen in Germany. Don’t ask what kind of change…