He will need Putin more

American geopolitical blunders there have been plenty in the past two decades. What kind of opportunities the outgoing administration and the election campaign over the past 2 years have wasted is unfathomable. It makes you wonder whether today’s Western world’s preoccupation with democracy and its processes is working towards the disadvantage of its standing and power.

You wouldn’t know where to start, but you could argue that the Obama sanctions against Russia kind of set the ball rolling. What was meant to assert US global order literally drove Moscow into the arms of China, and commenced the formation of a Eurasian plate of economic and political integration, previously commented on. Never in modern history was the relationship between the bear and dragon that fertile and complementary.

Trump’s campaign rhetoric vis-a-vis China and his dismantling of TPP did the rest. ASEAN has now firmly been pushed into China’s sphere of influence and the economic leg of the American pivot in the region been amputated. One South East Asian leader after the other has been paying reverence to a cheque-waving Beijing, with no exceptions. Beijing probably cannot believe its luck.

But the Chinese better not celebrate too early. You know how it is with people who realise they made capital mistakes and try to turn around the ship. They become aggressive and unpredictable in peddling back. This is exactly what the new administration will have to be doing to stay in the game that seems almost lost. As always, it can be done but the new Washington is coming from behind and it will cost America dearly.

In light of the gargantuan potential of a wider Eurasian integration Trump simply cannot dismiss it. He will need to find a way to wiggle back in, to play a meaningful role or risk a premature loss of his sole superpower status and eventual isolation. And it appears Trump’s focus is firmly on this particular issue. Western Europe and the EU have little significance for him right now, and he is not shying away from saying it.

So what if anything can the Trump cabinet do to shake things up? Well, what Uncle Sam does best… Divide and rule by creating volatility. America after all is still the sole superpower and theoretically all the options long. As we know from the theory, he who is long the options will gain when volatility jumps. And who better than Trump to get things in motion?

As such, it makes a lot of sense for Trump to simultaneously bark at China and make overtures to Vladimir Putin. The objective is to tear that growing bond between China and Russia apart before it is too late. The incoming secretary of state Rex Tillerson has joined in, putting out at the Senate confirmation hearings this incredible notion of preventing China from accessing its artificial islands in the South China Sea.

Almost sounds like Tillerson is turning into Trump’s hatchet man, as if he needed one. His statement is just shy of an outright declaration of war. Also, he has started to publicly play with the thought of reviving TPP in some shape or form, counting on the prevalent opportunism of ASEAN leaders and in an attempt to veer them off from getting too close to the Northern Asian big brother.

As the now most important US agent in the region Shinzo Abe is doing his bit and just went into the lion’s den. Last week in Manila he took up the fight for influence within South East Asia and saw Rodrigo Duterte, the one who has already scoffed at America numerous times during his short presidency and was the first ASEAN leader to pay homage to the nomenclature in Beijing a couple of months ago.

More of this is to be expected. The countermovement is only commencing. Trump will not rest threatening and kissing until this progressing formation of Eurasia and the ongoing harmonisation among relevant nations is finally disrupted – foremostly between Russia and China, but also between Russia, China and Iran, between Russia and Turkey, between China and ASEAN, and China and Pakistan, and China and the entire Central Asian region.

The biggest winners in this game of chicken will be two in particular – Shinzo Abe obviously, as the undisputed man in Asia backed by everything America has to offer. That blitz of a trip to New York to see Trump shortly after the elections is certain to pay huge dividends. Japan’s position as America’s unsinkable aircraft carrier and the bulwark against China has just been impressively reconfirmed.

The other clear winner is Vladimir Putin. What a chess player this man is. Sanctions gave him access to China, a much bigger future market for his immense resources than Europe. Obama’s neglect opened the door for him to become the dominant player in the Middle East. He has lured NATO-heavyweight Turkey into his web, controlled Iran, cozied up to Pakistan and had Japan on a string over the Kuril Isles.

And now Trump will have to make a deal, because as incredible as it sounds, the Eurasian dynamic prescribes that he almost needs Putin more than Putin needs him. To contain China’s rise, not just as an economic behemoth that it already is but also as the hegemon on the Eurasian plate and a potentially serious military challenger to the US, Trump needs Putin to re-create a balance of power and a counterweight to Beijing that is more imperative than ever.