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China’s geopolitics

I had mentioned Beijing’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) conference in an earlier post this week. But I always feel there is more to say when it comes to the future of China’s Silk Road and more generally the future of the Eurasian plate. You will recall that I noted the absence of G7 leaders at the summit, with the inglorious exception of Italy’s prime minister. The US sent a senior delegation, but only to squeeze into the AIIB last minute.

The one leader who was the first to hop on a plane to Beijing was Vladimir Putin. Moscow hasn’t yet been a significant beneficiary of the OBOR initiative, but it must be obvious to everybody that there is vast untapped potential to attract Chinese investment into Russia’s infrastructure and industry. Putin is keen to see the creation of an economic belt that takes into account the current trends of the world economy.
That is to say he wants to make sure that China will be connected with the rest of Eurasia, and obviously Russia. And China’s Silk Road originating from Xinjiang will to a large part run through Central Asia, an area that has been attributed to the Russian sphere of influence in modern history. It is all in Russia’s interest that the initiative will eventually and firmly tie Eurasia together.
The important aspect is that Putin and his people in government can see beyond the headlines. They understand that OBOR isn’t designed to just be an economic project. It is a geopolitical one. Xi Jinping’s idea of One Belt One Road is not the unique concept of one man, it is rather to be seen in a long-term tradition of Chinese leaders’ visions for their country. Think of Deng Xiaoping’s policy of openness, or Jiang Zemin’s motto to go outside.
Economic cooperation is the means for the ultimate geopolitical objective, namely a peaceful international environment that serves China’s needs while it keeps growing. Beijing simply needs more resources and markets to survive. OBOR is basically one and the same idea as Xi’s predecessors had. It is the Chinese, peaceful version of the existentialist concept.
Russia understands that very Chinese ambition, and Putin pragmatically tries to marry it with his own for Eurasia. There is no need to see China as a geopolitical competitor. For Moscow, it has become a complementary force. Ever since Russia has been forced into the arms of China by way of the Western sanctions, the level of trust between the two blocks has been deepening.
And Xi is reciprocating alright. Observers pointed out that he used an extraordinary idiom for the first time in the meeting with Putin, referring to China and Russia having played significant anchoring roles in safeguarding regional and global peace and stability. Not that everything will be hand-in-glove, but natural alignment of interests will bring those two closer together.
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