The last thing Europe needs right now is an armed conflict at its doorstep. On the face of it, it looks like we are getting closer to one, but there is so much at stake that we as mere mortals with limited information can only hope saner minds with the actual finger on the button will prevail. If Ukraine becomes the first domino stone to fall, god knows what trigger effect it will have on other areas around the globe. Everyone must be on alert and watching, ready to make a move if opportunities present themselves.
It seems pretty clear what America and Russia are trying to achieve. In the disguise of NATO Washington wants to assert US predominance within wider Europe and arrest Russia’s influence there. The Kremlin has had enough of colour revolutions and is keen to stop NATO expansion and preserve its power on the Old Continent. Moscow’s move on Crimea should have removed anyone’s doubts over whether Russia would even consider letting Sevastopol and the Russian navy’s position in the Black Sea slide away.
From observing over 20 years of Russian leadership I gather Vladimir Putin is not one to be poked or pushed around easily. He saved his homeland from the brink of ruin in the late 90s, and he will not serve his superpower status on a silver platter to Washington now. While Moscow may not invade Ukraine in a conventional sense, Putin has amassed military assets at the borders and signalled to the world that he means business and that he will not accept unlimited NATO memberships handed out at his very own doorstep.
You come to wonder why the Americans would want Ukraine to become a member in the first place. To be sure, it is the geography that hurts Moscow the most, hence Moscow’s passive rule in Donbass, a region whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians, many of which have already been furnished with a second passport. But else, as an
article in the Washington Times articulates, why should the US and NATO even consider extending an invitation to such an unstable nation?
The author pleads that the picture within Ukraine is much more complex and should give the West pause before risking a potential war with Russia on behalf of Kyiv. Ukraine would be one of the most corrupt countries on earth. The biggest threat to Ukraine’s long-term viability as a nation wasn’t the external threat of a Russian invasion but the internal danger of civil war and inestimable political instability. And why cross a red line that Putin has audibly warned the West against for many many years now?
It has been alleged that during the first Geneva summit in mid-January the American delegation leader Wendy Sherman ostentatiously concluded previous comments by NATO’s 29 allies, that Russia had come as one to a room of 30 but that at NATO the 30 would become one, hand in glove so to speak. When she spotted the Russian delegation passing notes and whispering to each other, Sherman paused and sharply demanded their attention.
Well, desired unity among the NATO heavyweights hasn’t exactly come through. Alongside the UK, Poland, and the Baltic states Germany, Italy, France, Spain are nominally also siding with America, obviously. But they are equally and continuously on record saying that a diplomatic solution is the only solution to the conflict, in a desperate attempt to avoid war and secure a seat at the negotiation table. Emmanuel Macron let it be known that the Normandy model could serve as a basis for ongoing talks.
Berlin must be on high alert with regards to Nordstream2. The new young and inexperienced foreign minister lady from the Green Party has openly broadcast her opposition against the pipeline, much to the liking of Washington. But she may have been overeager and kind of run into an open knife. Eventually, it will be the chancellor Olaf Scholz from the much more Russophile Social Democrats who has the final call in a foreign policy decision of such magnitude, and he hasn’t taken any side yet.
Ever higher energy prices have clawed away at disposable incomes of the masses, a constituency the Greens as much as the Social Democrats claim to support with their domestic political agendas. There have even been scenarios of real supply bottlenecks seriously threatening Germany’s and Europe’s energy security. Sure, satellite pictures reveal higher LNG traffic across the Atlantic, but neither are there enough re-gasification plants in Europe nor is LNG in any way price-competitive with Russian pipeline gas.
The potential rift between NATO members’ positioning probably broke out into the open on the weekend, when the head of the German navy was forced to resign for speaking his mind at a military forum held in Delhi. As everyone is aware by now, Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach questioned Western views over Putin’s intentions regarding Ukraine, adding that the Russian president wanted and probably deserved respect. A big no-no among the establishment, but he is not the only one thinking along those lines.
Meanwhile, the professor friend pointed out that Russia’s exchange reserves are on track eclipsing 700 billion dollars helped by steep crude prices. Gas is also substantially higher, feeding into Gazprom’s and others’ revenue streams. It doesn’t matter who buys the gas as long as there are willing takers. Apropos China… Beijing may appear as standing by and watching things unfold, but remember that proximity between China and Russia has accelerated and their trade roughly doubled in the past 5 years.
Then, it appears the gold price is making a move to break on the up. With crypto fading as a hedge against the demise of the money system as we know it, the shiny metal may finally have its day in the sun. Moscow’s foreign reserves are approx. 40% in gold now and less than 25% in dollars. The Kremlin has been preparing for either the collapse of the US money system or to insulate the country against another onslaught of sanctions. Either way, Russia can hardly be threatened with economic measures.
One should think long and hard before one pokes the bear, I guess.
