Asian realpolitik

Realpolitik is pretty straight-forward. Its definition is a system of politics or principles based on practical rather than moral or ideological considerations. It is politics or diplomacy based primarily on given circumstances. It is simply meant to be pragmatic, work with what you’ve got. Wikipedia goes as far as to say the term may imply coercive, amoral or Machiavellian behaviour of the predominant party.

The looming conflict around the South China Sea represents a case of realpolitik. China is building islands on top of shoals that are disputed with regards to individual South-East Asian countries’ ownerships. As we are all aware, counter claims have been made, and the US and Japan have been obvious stakeholders in this quarrel, pulling strings behind the scene and probably being the real agitator of the Hague arbitration tribunal.

As is well known the tribunal ruled that China has no legal basis for their extended maritime claims, and as expected Beijing would have none of it. In the forefront of all this are the Philippines, as it was former president Benigno Aquino who formally filed for the tribunal, and The Hague’s ruling specified that Beijing had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights. China’s leadership consequently rebutted by calling the Philippines acting in bad faith.

Ever since the ruling was released mid-July we could witness the issue hanging over international gatherings of political leaders and the Chinese making every effort, bilaterally with the affected South East Asian nations, to avoid bringing it up as a truly controversial agenda point. Beijing has so far not in the least been intimidated and, on the contrary, shown muscle wherever and whenever possible.

It has the potential to develop into a stand-off of historical proportions. The ruling vindicates the Philippines’ claims, on paper. There is nothing to make it undone, and it could encourage other countries in the region to equally stand up to China, again on paper. The initiators of the tribunal in Manila are celebrating, and the US is probably rubbing their hands to have stuck it to the ever growing whale in the region.

However, the new president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, doesn’t seem so sure about all this. He has taken an ostensibly cautious stance in how to deal with the very issue and China itself. If you had watched him carefully over the past few weeks, you would have seen a man uncomfortable in his skin, almost embarrassed about his predecessor’s action when running his diplomatic channels with the region’s big brother.

Duterte is no fool. He is a law-and-order leader at home, tough on crime and drugs, but he can also be soft-spoken and conciliatory when it’s necessary and to his country’s benefit. To have China as a foe is hardly what he has in mind. Ever since he was voted into office Duterte has been considerate if not accommodating in this dealings with Beijing, in order to avoid any form of confrontation. The key agenda is obviously to not offend China.

He is on record calling China’s president Xi great, and he called back his fishermen and wouldn’t let them go near the contested Scarborough Shoal. He appointed former president and elder statesman Fidel Ramos as special envoy to Beijing which is seen as a gesture of courtesy. And he has grown suspicious of the US’ commitment to his country and lately gone out of his way to show his personal advances to China, at times embracing China over America.

The new president does not tire pointing out the benefits of nurturing friendly relations with the Mainland. Beijing recently offered to finance railway projects in the Philippines. Duterte reportedly threw it in the face of the US enjoy in Manila, asking him whether he could match such an offer, because if he couldn’t, Duterte would not hesitate for a second to accept the goodwill of China.

In a latest sign of de-escalation efforts on his part Duterte announced he would steer clear of the maritime dispute at the ASEAN meeting in Laos next month, emphasising that he would only discuss the matter bilaterally and in private. The tough guy of Manila is doing everything not to provoke the big dog. A peaceful and economically fruitful relationship with China is the big prize he is after. In the end, money talks, and we know what walks…

Call it an act of political opportunism, but isn’t that what realpolitik is all about? In a funny sort of way China may actually be able to turn the tribunal around to their advantage. If the Philippines fell in line effectively accepting Beijing’s hegemony, it could be a precedent for the entire ASEAN. Whether they hate it or not, others are likely to think along the same lines. ASEAN is poised to veer towards the block of Chinese influence over time.

As the Wikipedia definition points our, it may not be the most elegant way to partner with your neighbours, but unless TPP gets ratified in due course and forms an economic and trade complementation of the US’ military pivot in the region, there is really nothing one can do about it. In such a case, the US would have to rely on its position with Japan and Korea to keep extending its might in the region.